December – 2012 – Forex Trading With Kong

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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I am a professional Day Trader working for a Prop Fund, Hope I can help people out and answer some questions

Howdy all, I work professionally for a proprietary trading fund, and have worked for quite a few in my time, hope I can offer some insights on trading etc you guys might have.
Bonus for you guys
Here are the columns in my trading journal and various explanations where appropriate:
Trade Number – Simply is this the first trade of the year? The 10th?, The 50th? I count a trade
that you opened and closed just one trade number. For example if you buy EUUSD today and
sell it 50 pips later in the day and close out the trade, then that is just one trade for recording
purposes. I do not create a second trade number to describe the exit. Both the entry and exit are
under the same trade number.


Ticket Number – This is ticket number / order ID number that your broker gives you for the trade
on your platform.


Day of the Week – This would be simply the day of the week the trade was initiated


Financial Instrument / Currency Pair – Whatever Financial Instrument or currency pair you are
trading. If you are trading EUUSD, put EUUSD. If you are trading the EuroFX futures
contract, then put in Euro FX. If you are trading the emini S&P, then put in Emini S&P 500. If
you are trading a stock, put in the ticker symbol. Etc.


Buy/Sell or Long/Short – Did you buy or sell to open the new trade? If you bought something to
open the trade, then write in either BUY or LONG. If you sold(shorted) something to open a
trade, then write in SOLD, or SHORT. This is a personal preference. Some people like to put in
their journals as BUY/SELL. Other people like to write in Long/Short. My preference is for
writing in long/short, since that is the more professional way to say it. I like to use the lingo
where possible.


Order Type – Market or Limit – When you entered the trade was it a market order or limit order?
Some people can enter a trade using a combination of market and limit orders. If you enter a
trade for $1 million half of which was market order and the other half was limit order, then you
can write in $500,000 Market, $500,000 Limit as a bullet points.


Position Size / Units / Contracts / Shares – How big was the total trade you entered? If you
bought 1 standard lot of a currency pair, then write in $100,000 or 1 standard lot. If you bought 5
gold futures contracts, then write in 5 contracts. If you bought 1,000 shares of stock, then write
in 1,000 shares. Etc.


Entry Price – The entry price you received entering your opening position. If you entered at
multiple prices, then you can either write in all the different fills you got, or specify the average
price received.


Entry Date – Date that you entered the position. For example January 23, 2012. Or you can
write in 1/23/12

.
Entry Time – Time that you opened the position. If it is multiple positions, then you can specify
each time for each various fill, or you can specify the time range. For example if you got
$100,000 worth of EUUSD filled at 3:00 AM EST, and another $100,000 filled at 3:05 and
another $100,000 filled at 3:25, then you can write all those in, or you can specify a range of 3:00
– 3:30 AM EST.


Entry Spread Cost (in pips) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
pips. If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread.


Entry Spread Cost (in dollars) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
dollars. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread.


Stop Loss Size – How big is your stop loss size? If you are trading a currency pair, then you
write in the pips. If you are trading the S&P futures contract, then write in the number of points.
If you are trading a stock, then write in how many cents or dollars your stop is away from your
entry price.


% Risk – If you were to get stopped out of the trade, how much % loss of your equity is that?
This is where you input your risk per trade expressed in % terms if you use such a position sizing
method. If you risked 0.50% of your account on the trade, then put in 0.50%


Risk in dollars – If you were to get stopped out of the trade, how much loss in dollars is that. For
example if you have a $100,000 account and you risked 1% on a trade, then write in $1,000
dollars


Potential Reward: Risk Ratio – This is a column that I only sometimes fill in. You write in what
the potential reward risk ratio of the trade is. If you are trading using a 100 pip stop and you
expect that the market can reasonably move 300 pips, then you can write in 3:1. Of course this is
an interesting column because you can look at it after the trade is finished and see how close you
were or how far removed from reality your initial projections were.


Potential Win Rate – This is another column that I only sometimes fill in. You write in what you
believe the potential win rate of this trade is. If you were to place this trade 10 times in a row,
how many times do you think you would win? I write it in as percentage terms. If you believe
the trade has a 50% chance to win, then write in 50%.


Type of Inefficiency – This is where you write in what type of inefficiency you are looking to
capture. I use the word inefficiency here. I believe it is important to think of trading setups as
inefficiencies. If you think in terms of inefficiencies, then you will think in terms of the market
being mispriced, then you will think about the reasons why the market is mispriced and why such
market expectations for example are out of alignment with reality. In this category I could write
in different types of trades such as fading the stops, different types of news trades, expecting
stops to get tripped, betting on sentiment intensifying, betting on sentiment reversing, etc. I do
not write in all the reasons why I took the trade in this column. I do that in another column. This
column is just to broadly define what type of inefficiency you are looking to capture.


Chart Time Frame – I do not use this since all my order flow based trades have nothing to do
with what chart time frame I look at. However, if you are a chartist or price action trader, then
you may want to include what chart time frame you found whatever pattern you were looking at.


Exit Price – When you exit your trade, you enter the price you received here.


Exit Date – The date you exited your trade.


Exit Time – The time you exited your trade.


Trade Duration – In hours, minutes, days or weeks. If the trade lasts less than an hour, I will
usually write in the duration in minutes. Anything in between 1 and 48 hours, I write in the hours
amount. Anything past that and I write it as days or weeks as appropriate, etc.
Pips the trade went against you before turning into a winner – If you have a trade that suffered a
draw down, but did not stop you out and eventually was a winner, then you write it how many
pips the trade went against you before it turned into a profitable trade. The reason you have this
column is to compare it to your stop loss size and see any patterns that emerge. If you notice that
a lot of your winning trades suffer a big draw down and get near your stop loss points but turn out
to be a profitable trade, then you can further refine your entry strategy to get in a better price.


Slippage on the Exit – If you get stopped out for a loss, then you write in how many pips you
suffered as slippage, if any. For example if you are long EUUSD at 1.2500 and have your stop
loss at 1.2400 and the market drops and you get filled at 1.2398, then you would write in -2 pips
slippage. In other words you lost 2 pips as slippage. This is important for a few different
reasons. Firstly, you want to see if the places you put your stop at suffer from slippage. If they
do, perhaps you can get better stop loss placement, or use it as useful information to find new
inefficiencies. Secondly, you want to see how much slippage your broker is giving you. If you
are trading the same system with different brokers, then you can record the slippage from each
one and see which has the lowest slippage so you can choose them.


Profit/Loss -You write in the profit and/or loss in pips, cents, points, etc as appropriate. If you
bought EUUSD at 1.2500 and sell it at 1.2550, you made 50 pips, so write in +50 pips. If you
bought a stock at $50 and you sell it at $60, then write in +$10. If you buy the S&P futures at
1,250 and sell them at 1,275, then write in +25 points. If you buy the GBP/USD at 1.5000 and
you sell it at 1.4900, then write in -100 pips. Etc. I color code the box background to green for
profit and red for loss.


Profit/Loss In Dollars – You write the profit and/or loss in dollars (or euros, or jpy, etc whatever
currency your account is denominated in). If you are long $100,000 of EUUSD at 1.2500 and
sell it at 1.2600, then write in +$1,000. If you are short $100,000 GBP/USD at 1.5900 and it
rises to 1.6000 and you cover, then write in -$1,000. I color code the box background to green
for profit and red for loss.


Profit/Loss as % of your account – Write in the profit and/or loss as % of your account. If a trade
made you 2% of your account, then write in +2%. If a trade lost 0.50%, then write in -0.50%. I
color code the box background to green for profit and red for loss.


Reward:Risk Ratio or R multiple: If the trade is a profit, then write in how many times your risk
did it pay off. If you risked 0.50% and you made 1.00%, then write in +2R or 2:1 or 2.0. If you
risked 0.50% and a trade only makes 0.10%, then write in +0.20R or 0.2:1 or 0.2. If a trade went
for a loss that is equal to or less than what you risked, then I do not write in anything. If the loss
is greater than the amount you risked, then I do write it in this column. For example lets say you
risk 0.50% on a stock, but overnight the market gaps and you lose 1.50% on a trade, then I would
write it in as a -3R.


What Type of trading loss if the trade lost money? – This is where I describe in very general
terms a trade if it lost money. For example, if I lost money on a trade and the reason was because
I was buying in a market that was making fresh lows, but after I bought the market kept on going
lower, then I would write in: “trying to pick a bottom.” If I tried shorting into a rising uptrend
and I take a loss, then I describe it as “trying to pick a top.” If I am buying in an uptrend and buy
on a retracement, but the market makes a deeper retracement or trend change, then I write in
“tried to buy a ret.” And so on and so forth. In very general terms I describe it. The various
ways I use are:
• Trying to pick a bottom
• Trying to pick a top
• Shorting a bottom
• Buying a top
• Shorting a ret and failed
• Wrongly predicted news
• Bought a ret and failed
• Fade a resistance level
• Buy a support level
• Tried to buy a breakout higher
• Tried to short a breakout lower
I find this category very interesting and important because when performing trade journal
analysis, you can notice trends when you have winners or losing trades. For example if I notice a
string of losing trades and I notice that all of them occur in the same market, and all of them have
as a reason: “tried to pick a bottom”, then I know I was dumb for trying to pick a bottom five
times in a row. I was fighting the macro order flow and it was dumb. Or if I notice a string of
losers and see that I tried to buy a breakout and it failed five times in a row, but notice that the
market continued to go higher after I was stopped out, then I realize that I was correct in the
move, but I just applied the wrong entry strategy. I should have bought a retracement, instead of
trying to buy a fresh breakout.


That Day’s Weaknesses (If any) – This is where I write in if there were any weaknesses or
distractions on the day I placed the trade. For example if you are dead tired and place a trade,
then write in that you were very tired. Or if you place a trade when there were five people
coming and out of your trading office or room in your house, then write that in. If you placed the
trade when the fire alarm was going off then write that in. Or if you place a trade without having
done your daily habits, then write that in. Etc. Whatever you believe was a possible weakness
that threw you off your game.


That Day’s Strengths (If any) – Here you can write in what strengths you had during the day you
placed your trade. If you had complete peace and quiet, write that in. If you completed all your
daily habits, then write that in. Etc. Whatever you believe was a possible strength during the
day.


How many Open Positions Total (including the one you just placed) – How many open trades do
you have after placing this one? If you have zero open trades and you just placed one, then the
total number of open positions would be one, so write in “1.” If you have on three open trades,
and you are placing a new current one, then the total number of open positions would be four, so
write in “4.” The reason you have this column in your trading journal is so that you can notice
trends in winning and losing streaks. Do a lot of your losing streaks happen when you have on a
lot of open positions at the same time? Do you have a winning streak when the number of open
positions is kept low? Or can you handle a lot of open positions at the same time?


Exit Spread Cost (in pips) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in pips.
If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread.


Exit Spread Cost (in dollars) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
dollars. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread.


Total Spread Cost (in pips) – You write in the total spread cost of the entry and exit in pips.


Total Spread Cost (in dollars) – You write in the total spread cost of the entry and exit in dollars.


Commission Cost – Here you write in the total commission cost that you incurred for getting in
and out of the trade. If you have a forex broker that is commission free and only gets
compensated through the spread, then you do not need this column.


Starting Balance – The starting account balance that you had prior to the placing of the trade


Interest/swap – If you hold forex currency pairs past the rollover, then you either get interest or
need to pay out interest depending on the rollover rates. Or if you bought a stock and got a
dividend then write that in. Or if you shorted a stock and you had to pay a dividend, then write
that in.


Ending Balance – The ending balance of your account after the trade is closed after taking into
account trade P&L, commission cost, and interest/swap.


Reasons for taking the trade – Here is where you go into much more detail about why you placed
the trade. Write out your thinking. Instead of writing a paragraph or two describing my thinking
behind the trade, I condense the reasons down into bullet points. It can be anywhere from 1-10
bullet points.


What I Learned – No matter if the trade is a win or loss, write down what you believed you
learned. Again, instead of writing out a paragraph or two, I condense it down into bullet points. it
can be anywhere from 1-10 bullet points. I do this during the day the trade closed as a profit or
loss.


What I learned after Long Term reflection, several days, weeks, or months – This is the very
interesting column. This is important because after you have a winning or losing trade, you will
not always know the true reasons why it happened. You have your immediate theories and
reasons which you include in the previous column. However, there are times when after several
days, weeks, or months, you find the true reason and proper market belief about why your trade
succeeded or failed. It can take a few days or weeks or months to reach that “aha” moment. I am
not saying that I am thinking about trades I placed ten months ago. I try to forget about them and
focus on the present moment. However, there will be trades where you have these nagging
questions about they failed or succeeded and you will only discover those reasons several days,
weeks, or months later. When you discover the reasons, you write them in this column.
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Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge
See first: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/

Against it's major counterparts, the JPY has been showing a lot of strength. It's now getting into areas where it is threatening breakouts of decade long support and resistance levels.

Opportunity for us as traders if this happens is abundant. We've not seen trading conditions like this for over 10 years on this currency, and back then it was a hell of a show! In this post I'll discuss this, and my plans to trade it.

I'm going to focus on one currency pair, although I do think this same sort of move will be reflected across most of the XXXJPY pairs. The pair I will be using is GBPJPY. I like the volatility in this pair, and along with the JPY looking continually strong and there being uncertainty in the GBP with possible Brexit related issues, this seems like an ideal target for planning to trade a strong move up in the JPY.

The Big Overview

I'll start by drawing your attention to something a lot of you will have probably not been aware of. GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend. All this stuff happening day to day, week to week and month to month has always fitted into an overall larger downtrend. In the context of that downtrend, there have been no surprises in the price moves GBPJPY has made. This is not true of the real world events that drove these moves. Things like market crashes, bubbles and Brexit.

https://preview.redd.it/5gfhwxcy6wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d4806dee84a7bbe073e08d153da946222893eeb

Source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-JPY

I know this has been largely sideways for a long time, but it is valid to say this is a downtrend. The highs are getting lower, and the lows have been getting lower (last low after the Brexit fall and following 'flash crash' some weeks later).
This is important to understand, because it's going to help a lot when we look at what has happened over the last 5 - 10 years in this pair, and what it tells us might be about to happen in the coming few months and year to come. If the same pattern continues, a well designed and executed trade plan can make life changing money for the person who does that. I hope those of you who take the time to check the things I say here understand that is very feasible.

The last Decade


In the same way I've shown you how we can understand when a trend has corrective weeks and see certain sorts of price structure in that, from 2012 to 2015 GBPJPY had a corrective half decade. In the context of large price moves over decades, this was a sharp correction. I've discussed at length in my posts how sharp corrections can then lead into impulse legs.

https://preview.redd.it/kvnrqau07wj31.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e96f02a189a811d511ef7946037fd670d106b1b
I've explained though my posts and real time analysis and trades in the short term how in an impulse leg we would expect to see a strong move in line with the trend, then it stalling for a while. Choppy range. Then there being a big spike out move of that range. Making dramatic new lows. Then we'd enter into another corrective cycle (I've been showing you weeks, it's more practical. We'll be looking at the same thing scaled out over longer, that's all).

At this point, we can say the following things which are all non-subjective.
  • GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend.
  • A clear high after a strong rally was made in 2016
  • Since then, GBPJPY has downtrended
5 year chart confirms the latter two points.

https://preview.redd.it/a44rzzs47wj31.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=43fbebe933fa80d1c24a1f8fde2c08653d125d18

These are interesting facts. We can do a lot of with this information to understand where we may really be in the overall context of what this pair is doing.

The Clear Trend Cycle of the Last 5 Years


If we were to use the Elliot Wave theory, based on the above data we have we'd expect to see down trending formations on the weekly chart over the last 5 years. These would form is three distinct trend legs, each having a corrective pattern after. We would expect to see after that a strong correction (corrective year in down trending 5 year cycle), it stop at the 61.8% fib and then resume a down trend. The down trend would form similarly in three main moves.

https://preview.redd.it/ghvgzr577wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=caeedc4f48ab3b4d1ed921ef519a33200db62868

Whether or not you believe Elliot Wave theory is any good or not, this is what it would predict. If you gave someone who knew about Elliot trading the facts we've established - they'd make this prediction. So let's see how that would look on the GBPJPY chart. I'm having problems with my cTrader platform today, so will have to use MT4 charting.


These are three distinct swings from a high to a low. It also fits all the other Elliot rules about swing formation (which I won't cover, but you can Google and learn if you'd like to). We then go into a period of correction. GBPJPY rallies for a year.
This corrective year does not look very different from a corrective week. Which I've shown how we can understand and trade though various different posts.

https://preview.redd.it/m9ga8pp97wj31.png?width=590&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ed069207b8297c0ab67d6608206b57a1b354fef
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cwwe34/common_trading_mistakes_how_trend_strategies_lose/

Compare the charts, there is nothing different. It's not because I've copied this chart, it is just what a trend and correction looks like. I've shown this is not curve fitting by forecasting these corrective weeks and telling you all my trades in them (very high success rate).

What about the retrace level?
When we draw fibs from the shoulders high (which is where the resistance was, there was a false breakout of it giving an ever so slightly higher high), it's uncanny how price reacted to this level.

https://preview.redd.it/68pa0bgc7wj31.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f78ce2c11f267f32dacd17c8717dcfa1f8bcb6a
This is exactly what the theory would predict. I hope even those sceptical about Elliot theory can agree this looks like three trend moves with corrections, a big correction and then a top at 61.8%. Which is everything the starting data would predict if the theory was valid and in action.

Assumptions and Planning


To this point, I've made no assumptions. This is a reporting/highlighting of facts on historical data of this pair. Now I am going to make some assumptions to use them to prepare a trade plan. These will be;

  • This is an Elliot formation, and will continue to be.
  • Since it is, this leg will have symmetry to the previous leg.

I'll use the latter to confirm the former. I'll use a projection of what it'd look like if it was similar to the previous move. I'll put in my markers, and look for things to confirm or deny it. There'll be ways to both suggest I am right, and suggest I am wrong. For as long as nothing that obviously invalidates these assumptions happens in the future price action, I'll continue to assume them to be accurate.

Charting Up for Forecasts

The first thing I have do here is get some markers. What I want to do is see if there is a consistency in price interactions on certain fib levels (this is using different methods from what I've previously discussed in my posts, to avoid confusion for those who follow my stuff). I am going to draw extension swings and these will give level forecasts. I have strategies based upon this, and I'm looking for action to be consistent with these, and also duplicated in the big swings down.
I need to be very careful with how I draw my fibs. Since I can see what happened in the chart, it obviously gives me some bias to curve fit to that. This does not suit my objective. Making it fit will not help give foresight. So I need to look for ways to draw the fib on the exact same part of the swing in both of the moves.

https://preview.redd.it/d5qwm8vg7wj31.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad2deba557f9f6d8a0fe06d34cbe3307e7cccc24

These two parts of price moves look like very similar expressions of each other to me. There is the consolidation at the low, and then a big breakout. Looking closer at the top, both of them make false breakouts low before making a top. So I am going to use these swings to draw my fibs on, from the low to the high. What I will be looking for as specific markers is the price reaction to the 1.61% level (highly important fib).
A strategy I have designed around this would look for price to stall at this level, bounce a bit and then make a big breakout and strong trend. This would continue into the 2.20 and 2.61 extension levels. So I'm interested to see if that matches in.

https://preview.redd.it/mpoqz4aj7wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=710d72120085c1e137c800f57a36f910f78eebcb
Very similar price moves are seen in the area where price traded through the 1.61 level. The breakout strategy here predicts a retracement and then another sell to new lows.
On the left swing, we made a retracement and now test lows. On the right swing, we've got to the point of testing the lows here. This is making this level very important. The breakout strategy here would predict a swing to 61 is price breaks these lows. This might sound unlikely, but this signal would have been flagged as possible back in 2008. It would require the certain criteria I've explained here, and all of this has appeared on the chart since then. This gives me many reasons to suspect a big sell is coming.

On to the next assumption. For this fall to happen in a strong style like all of these are suggesting, it'd have to be one hell of a move. Elliot wave theory would predict this, if it was wave 3 move, these are the strongest. From these I'm going to form a hypothesis and then see if I can find evidence for or against it. I am going to take the hypothesis that where we are in this current GBPJPY chart is going to late come to been seen in a larger context as this.

https://preview.redd.it/tkfzja5n7wj31.png?width=661&format=png&auto=webp&s=47fc014619a61728f16e1527e729b82edad6b94e

This hypothesis would have the Brexit lows and correction from this being the same as the small bounce up before this market capitulated. This would forecast there being a break in this pair to the downside, and that then being followed by multiple sustained strong falls. I know this looks insanely big ... but this is not much in the context of the theme of the last 50 years. This sort of thing has always been what happened when we made this breakout.

Since I have my breakout strategy forecasting 61, I check for confluence of anything that may also give that area as a forecast. I'm looking for symmetry, so I take the ratio of the size of the first big fall on the left to the ratio of when it all out crashed. These legs are close to 50% more (bit more, this is easy math). The low to high of the recent swing would be 7,500 pips. So this would forecast 11,000.
When you take that away from the high of 156, it comes in very close to 61. Certainly close enough to be considered within the margin of error this strategy has for forecasting.

I will be posting a lot more detailed trade plans that this. Dealing specific levels to plan to engage the market, stop trailing and taking profit. I'll also quite actively track my trades I am making to enter into the market for this move. This post is to get the broad strokes of why I'm looking for this trade in place, and to help you to have proper context by what I mean when you hear me talking about big sells on this pair and other XXXJPY pairs.
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Economic growth under Modi government

DISCLAIMER- THIS IS NOT A POST BY ME. I AM MERELY SHARING THE POST BY COPY PASTING IT HERE.

SOURCE OF THIS ENTIRE ARTICLE Quora Article by SAKET KUMAR

Original Article has all pictures and graphs for you to refer to. This post only has the text. The text in Bold are hyperlinks in the original article which not here.

I am trained as a Scientist so first I have to present credible relevant data before I can convince anyone. First I will answer the question with 1 picture and explain 3 parameters.
The below image is not fake. They are NASA satellite images of India taken during night time.

As you can see one on the left is from 2012 and on the right is from 2016. The research paper written by Luis R. Martinez from University of Chicago shows that increased use of electricity at night is parallel to country’s economic growth. Further he states in that paper authoritarian countries like China and Russia are fudging their GDP anywhere from 15 to 30% every year. You can read the research paper here How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates? or you can read Washington Post article .
Now the 3 Parameters
Modi became PM on May 26th 2014. In October 2014 IMF came out with a report which said** India set to become $2 trillion economy in 2014: IMF** . India’s GDP was ~$1.9 Trillion when Modi became PM. Fast forward now the same IMF says India’s GDP is $3.2 Trillion . Here is the snap shot directly from IMF website.

**Note: IMF always slightly understates GDP to account for any observational bias and inaccuracies. This is GDP estimate from a totally neutral source so you can’t say this is BJP propaganda or call it as fake.
→Conclusion from GDP data: Modi government added $1.2 Trillion to GDP in 5 years. India reached $1 Trillion GDP in 2007 India had joined trillion-dollar club in 2007 so even after 7 years of being in power UPA couldn’t even make India $2 Trillion economy. When Atalji left office in 2004 India had $700 billion GDP according to World bank report . So UPA in 10 years added $1.2 Trillion in GDP but Modiji did the same in 5 years.
Inflation: Inflation in Economic terms is general increase in prices and fall in purchasing power parity. As you know when there is increase in inflation prices rise on many goods and services and your purchasing power decreases. Just because prices increased on goods and services doesn’t mean your boss is going to increase your salary unless you are a Central government employee where you get Dearness allowance - Wikipedia to compensate for high inflation. Let’s look at inflation from 1998 :

Inflation directly affects the common man. When Atalji came to power in 1998 inflation was through the roof at 13.5%. He cracked down on inflation and brought it down to ~4% and maintained the same through out his Premiership. This is a PM who cared for the common man. Now look at the graph after 2004. UPA always maintained high inflation which on average was above 8%+ which emptied people’s pockets faster than they could spend. Just see how the graph dips when Modi became PM in 2014. Keeping inflation down is one of the paramount tasks of any BJP Prime Minister.
Important Note: GDP growth in some ways is tied to inflation. If you have a GDP growth rate of 10% with 10% inflation then it’s no use. It’s better to have GDP growth of 5% with low inflation rate of below 2%. Lower the inflation the better for the economy as long as it is not in negative. UPA always boasts about high GDP but never ever mention inflation rate during their term because they know they will be caught with pants down. Some people can see through the BS of UPA’s high GDP growth. GDP surged under UPA because it purchased growth at a high price .
→Conclusion from Inflation data: Inflation was always low under Atalji and Modiji. No Economist can deny that. No amount of propaganda from Congress can deny this brutal truth. In between all the lies even the scammer, fraud and corrupt Chiddu accepts it** High inflation was a big red in the UPA-2 report card: P Chidambaram**
Forex Reserves: When Atalji became PM in 1998 India’s forex reserves was ~$30 billion . When he left office in 2004 it had jumped to $114 billion . When Modi became PM on May 26th 2014 the forex reserves was $303 billion . Now as of March 13th 2020 forex reserves is** Forex reserves surge by $5.69 billion to reach record $487.23 bn** .
***Note: It is exactly because of our lower forex reserves we had to approach IMF in 1991. In return for IMF bail out India had to open up it’s markets for outside investment. If India doesn’t have enough forex then Economy comes to a standstill as India will lack the capability to pay for external goods and services which it imports. We import 90% of our Oil from abroad. If there is no oil then there is no economy.
→Conclusion from Forex data: Atalji as PM increased forex from $30 billion to $114 billion in 6 years during Pokran sanctions and unfavorable economic climate. Atalji’s government added $114B - $30B = $84 billion into forex. At the end of UPA tenure forex was $303 billion. So UPA in 10 years added $303B - $114B = $189 billion. Now how much did Modi Sarkar added in 5 years? $487B - $303B = $184 billion. As you can see just like GDP what UPA did in 10 years Modiji government has done the same for forex in 5 years. And we still have 4 more years to go. I hope India reaches $1 Trillion in forex which can help India project power. None of the countries who are barking on CAA will bark again when you have a war chest of Trillion dollars.
Final Conclusion: I have only added 3 parameters to my answer since the question is asking everything to be in 1 picture which is not possible. But anyone can tell you simple truth if Modiji hasn’t done anything since he became PM then all the above parameters would be worse off than how UPA left them in 2014. Those 3 are very very important parameters for India. If India is performing worse like some morons who are predicting apocalypse for Indian economy are saying then the data is not backing them up.
submitted by DeadBodiesinMyArse to IndiaSpeaks [link] [comments]

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge
Against it's major counterparts, the JPY has been showing a lot of strength. It's now getting into areas where it is threatening breakouts of decade long support and resistance levels.

Opportunity for us as traders if this happens is abundant. We've not seen trading conditions like this for over 10 years on this currency, and back then it was a hell of a show! In this post I'll discuss this, and my plans to trade it.

I'm going to focus on one currency pair, although I do think this same sort of move will be reflected across most of the XXXJPY pairs. The pair I will be using is GBPJPY. I like the volatility in this pair, and along with the JPY looking continually strong and there being uncertainty in the GBP with possible Brexit related issues, this seems like an ideal target for planning to trade a strong move up in the JPY.

The Big Overview

I'll start by drawing your attention to something a lot of you will have probably not been aware of. GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend. All this stuff happening day to day, week to week and month to month has always fitted into an overall larger downtrend. In the context of that downtrend, there have been no surprises in the price moves GBPJPY has made. This is not true of the real world events that drove these moves. Things like market crashes, bubbles and Brexit.

https://preview.redd.it/9r6rnqo4rvj31.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=738602a2157e08c3f9ec6c588ae603edb5b71a36
Source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-JPY

I know this has been largely sideways for a long time, but it is valid to say this is a downtrend. The highs are getting lower, and the lows have been getting lower (last low after the Brexit fall and following 'flash crash' some weeks later).
This is important to understand, because it's going to help a lot when we look at what has happened over the last 5 - 10 years in this pair, and what it tells us might be about to happen in the coming few months and year to come. If the same pattern continues, a well designed and executed trade plan can make life changing money for the person who does that. I hope those of you who take the time to check the things I say here understand that is very feasible.

The last Decade


In the same way I've shown you how we can understand when a trend has corrective weeks and see certain sorts of price structure in that, from 2012 to 2015 GBPJPY had a corrective half decade. In the context of large price moves over decades, this was a sharp correction. I've discussed at length in my posts how sharp corrections can then lead into impulse legs.
https://preview.redd.it/j5q3jrtvsvj31.png?width=1269&format=png&auto=webp&s=a76fdb3de6e943234352f4b9832483c35e082a4b
I've explained though my posts and real time analysis and trades in the short term how in an impulse leg we would expect to see a strong move in line with the trend, then it stalling for a while. Choppy range. Then there being a big spike out move of that range. Making dramatic new lows. Then we'd enter into another corrective cycle (I've been showing you weeks, it's more practical. We'll be looking at the same thing scaled out over longer, that's all).

At this point, we can say the following things which are all non-subjective.
  • GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend.
  • A clear high after a strong rally was made in 2016
  • Since then, GBPJPY has downtrended
5 year chart confirms the latter two points.

https://preview.redd.it/ac1kjwr1uvj31.png?width=1249&format=png&auto=webp&s=f94861cab758119231fff168233bebac832cf456

These are interesting facts. We can do a lot of with this information to understand where we may really be in the overall context of what this pair is doing.

The Clear Trend Cycle of the Last 5 Years


If we were to use the Elliot Wave theory, based on the above data we have we'd expect to see down trending formations on the weekly chart over the last 5 years. These would form is three distinct trend legs, each having a corrective pattern after. We would expect to see after that a strong correction (corrective year in down trending 5 year cycle), it stop at the 61.8% fib and then resume a down trend. The down trend would form similarly in three main moves.

Whether or not you believe Elliot Wave theory is any good or not, this is what it would predict. If you gave someone who knew about Elliot trading the facts we've established - they'd make this prediction. So let's see how that would look on the GBPJPY chart. I'm having problems with my cTrader platform today, so will have to use MT4 charting.


https://preview.redd.it/s8vguiimvvj31.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d023db99041c9ba91f61ab87d3bd48de8da514
These are three distinct swings from a high to a low. It also fits all the other Elliot rules about swing formation (which I won't cover, but you can Google and learn if you'd like to). We then go into a period of correction. GBPJPY rallies for a year.
This corrective year does not look very different from a corrective week. Which I've shown how we can understand and trade though various different posts.
https://preview.redd.it/yowdmil6wvj31.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=bad142803823e6a7f8af56ef63ebebc574210c4b
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cwwe34/common_trading_mistakes_how_trend_strategies_lose/

Compare the charts, there is nothing different. It's not because I've copied this chart, it is just what a trend and correction looks like. I've shown this is not curve fitting by forecasting these corrective weeks and telling you all my trades in them (very high success rate).

What about the retrace level?
When we draw fibs from the shoulders high (which is where the resistance was, there was a false breakout of it giving an ever so slightly higher high), it's uncanny how price reacted to this level.
https://preview.redd.it/axvtd22wwvj31.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=518f309232552ea33921e939b08d2bf28ba76f0b
This is exactly what the theory would predict. I hope even those sceptical about Elliot theory can agree this looks like three trend moves with corrections, a big correction and then a top at 61.8%. Which is everything the starting data would predict if the theory was valid and in action.

Assumptions and Planning


To this point, I've made no assumptions. This is a reporting/highlighting of facts on historical data of this pair. Now I am going to make some assumptions to use them to prepare a trade plan. These will be;

  • This is an Elliot formation, and will continue to be.
  • Since it is, this leg will have symmetry to the previous leg.

I'll use the latter to confirm the former. I'll use a projection of what it'd look like if it was similar to the previous move. I'll put in my markers, and look for things to confirm or deny it. There'll be ways to both suggest I am right, and suggest I am wrong. For as long as nothing that obviously invalidates these assumptions happens in the future price action, I'll continue to assume them to be accurate.

Charting Up for Forecasts

The first thing I have do here is get some markers. What I want to do is see if there is a consistency in price interactions on certain fib levels (this is using different methods from what I've previously discussed in my posts, to avoid confusion for those who follow my stuff). I am going to draw extension swings and these will give level forecasts. I have strategies based upon this, and I'm looking for action to be consistent with these, and also duplicated in the big swings down.
I need to be very careful with how I draw my fibs. Since I can see what happened in the chart, it obviously gives me some bias to curve fit to that. This does not suit my objective. Making it fit will not help give foresight. So I need to look for ways to draw the fib on the exact same part of the swing in both of the moves.

https://preview.redd.it/xgvofjcl0wj31.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d2564bbe2ece9506c425397c672c16cd75a2766
These two parts of price moves look like very similar expressions of each other to me. There is the consolidation at the low, and then a big breakout. Looking closer at the top, both of them make false breakouts low before making a top. So I am going to use these swings to draw my fibs on, from the low to the high. What I will be looking for as specific markers is the price reaction to the 1.61% level (highly important fib).
A strategy I have designed around this would look for price to stall at this level, bounce a bit and then make a big breakout and strong trend. This would continue into the 2.20 and 2.61 extension levels. So I'm interested to see if that matches in.

https://preview.redd.it/4tl024da2wj31.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=09a813fcdf67a0fac41ff1d9a44b540fd1298106
Very similar price moves are seen in the area where price traded through the 1.61 level. The breakout strategy here predicts a retracement and then another sell to new lows.
On the left swing, we made a retracement and now test lows. On the right swing, we've got to the point of testing the lows here. This is making this level very important. The breakout strategy here would predict a swing to 61 is price breaks these lows. This might sound unlikely, but this signal would have been flagged as possible back in 2008. It would require the certain criteria I've explained here, and all of this has appeared on the chart since then. This gives me many reasons to suspect a big sell is coming.

On to the next assumption. For this fall to happen in a strong style like all of these are suggesting, it'd have to be one hell of a move. Elliot wave theory would predict this, if it was wave 3 move, these are the strongest. From these I'm going to form a hypothesis and then see if I can find evidence for or against it. I am going to take the hypothesis that where we are in this current GBPJPY chart is going to late come to been seen in a larger content as this.

https://preview.redd.it/ctcill674wj31.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=538847fce98009b8177e079aa6a3ecba0684e73f
This hypothesis would have the Brexit lows and correction from this being the same as the small bounce up before this market capitulated. This would forecast there being a break in this pair to the downside, and that then being followed by multiple sustained strong falls.
Since I have my breakout strategy forecasting 61, I check for confluence of anything that may also give that area as a forecast. I'm looking for symmetry, so I take the ratio of the size of the first big fall on the left to the ratio of when it all out crashed. These legs are close to 50% more (bit more, this is easy math). The low to high of the recent swing would be 7,500 pips. So this would forecast 11,000.
When you take that away from the high of 156, it comes in very close to 61. Certainly close enough to be considered within the margin of error this strategy has for forecasting.

I will be posting a lot more detailed trade plans that this. Dealing specific levels to plan to engage the market, stop trailing and taking profit. I'll also quite actively track my trades I am making to enter into the market for this move. This post is to get the broad strokes of why I'm looking for this trade in place, and to help you to have proper content by what I mean when you hear me talking about big sells on this pair and other XXXJPY pairs.
submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]

Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.

This article is taken from the Wall Street Journal written about nine months ago and sits behind a a paywall, so I decided to copy and paste it here. This article explains Trump's policies toward global trade and what has actually happened so far. I think the article does a decent job of explaining the Trade War. While alot has happenedsince the article was written, I still think its relevant.
However, what is lacking in the article, like many articles on the trade war, is it doesn't really explain the history of US trade policy, the laws that the US administration is using to place tariffs on China and the official justification for the US President in enacting tariffs against China. In my analysis I will cover those points.

SUMMARY

When Trump entered the White House people feared he would dismantle the global system the US and its allies had built over the last 75 years, but he hasn't. He has realign into two systems. One between the US and its allies which looks similar to the one built since the 1980s with a few of quota and tariffs. As the article points out
Today, Korus and Nafta have been replaced by updated agreements(one not yet ratified) that look much like the originals. South Korea accepted quotas on steel. Mexico and Canada agreed to higher wages, North American content requirements and quotas for autos. Furthermore, the article points out Douglas Irwin, an economist and trade historian at Dartmouth College, calls these results the “status quo with Trumpian tweaks: a little more managed trade sprinkled about for favored industries. It’s not good, but it’s not the destruction of the system.” Mr. Trump’s actions so far affect only 12% of U.S. imports, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In 1984, 21% of imports were covered by similar restraints, many imposed by Mr. Reagan, such as on cars, steel, motorcycles and clothing. Protectionist instincts go so far in the US, there are strong lobby groups for both protectionist and freetrade in the US.
The second reflects a emerging rivalry between the US and China. Undo some of the integration that followed China accession to the WTO. Two questions 1) How far is the US willing to decouple with China 2) Can it persuade allies to join.
The second is going to be difficult because China's economic ties are greater than they were between the Soviets, and China isn't waging an ideological struggle. Trump lacks Reagan commitment to alliance and free trade. The status quo with China is crumbling Dan Sullivan, a Republican senator from Alaska, personifies these broader forces reshaping the U.S. approach to the world. When Mr. Xi visited the U.S. in 2015, Mr. Sullivan urged his colleagues to pay more attention to China’s rise. On the Senate floor, he quoted the political scientist Graham Allison: “War between the U.S. and China is more likely than recognized at the moment.” Last spring, Mr. Sullivan went to China and met officials including Vice President Wang Qishan. They seemed to think tensions with the U.S. will fade after Mr. Trump leaves the scene, Mr. Sullivan recalled. “I just said, ‘You are completely misreading this.’” The mistrust, he told them, is bipartisan, and will outlast Mr. Trump. both Bush II and Obama tried to change dialogue and engagement, but by the end of his term, Obama was questioning the approach. Trump has declared engagement. “We don’t like it when our allies steal our ideas either, but it’s a much less dangerous situation,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute whose views align with the administration’s more hawkish officials. “We’re not worried about the war-fighting capability of Japan and Korea because they’re our friends.”
The article also points out unlike George Kennan in 1946 who made a case for containing the Soviet Union, the US hasn't explicitly made a case for containing the Soviets, Trump's administration hasn't, because as the the article explains its divided Michael Pillsbury a Hudson Institute scholar close to the Trump team, see 3 scenarios
Pillsbury thinks the third is most likely to happen, even though the administration hasn't said that it has adopted that policy. The US is stepping efforts to draw in other trading partners. The US, EU and Japan have launched a WTO effort to crack down on domestic subsidies and technology transfers requirement. US and Domestic concerns with prompted some countries to restrict Huawei. The US is also seeking to walloff China from other trade deals. However, there are risk with this strategy

ARTICLE

Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.

INTRODUCTION

My main criticism of this article is it tries like the vast majority of articles to fit US trade actions in the larger context of US geopolitical strategy. Even the author isn't certain "The first goes to the heart of Mr. Trump’s goal. If his aim is to hold back China’s advance, economists predict he will fail.". If you try to treat the trade "war" and US geopolitical strategy toward China as one, you will find yourself quickly frustrated and confused. If you treat them separately with their different set of stakeholders and histories, were they intersect with regards to China, but diverge. During the Cold War, trade policy toward the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc was subordinated to geopolitical concerns. For Trump, the trade issues are more important than geopolitical strategy. His protectionist trade rhetoric has been fairly consistent since 1980s. In his administration, the top cabinet members holding economic portfolios, those of Commerce, Treasury and US Trade Representative are the same people he picked when he first took office. The Director of the Economic Council has changed hands once, its role isn't as important as the National Security Advisor. While State, Defense, CIA, Homeland Security, UN Ambassador, National Security Advisor have changed hands at least once. Only the Director of National Intelligence hasn't changed.
International Trade makes up 1/4 of the US economy, and like national security its primarily the responsibility of the Federal government. States in the US don't implement their own tariffs. If you add the impact of Treasury policy and how it relates to capital flows in and out of the US, the amounts easily exceed the size of the US economy. Furthermore, because of US Dollar role as the reserve currency and US control of over global system the impact of Treasury are global. Trade policy and investment flows runs through two federal departments Commerce and Treasury and for trade also USTR. Defense spending makes up 3.3% of GDP, and if you add in related homeland security its at most 4%. Why would anyone assume that these two realms be integrated let alone trade policy subordinate to whims of a national security bureaucracy in most instances? With North Korea or Iran, trade and investment subordinate themselves to national security, because to Treasury and Commerce bureaucrats and their affiliated interest groups, Iran and the DPRK are well, economic midgets, but China is a different matter.
The analysis will be divided into four sections. The first will be to provide a brief overview of US trade policy since 1914. The second section will discuss why the US is going after China on trade issues, and why the US has resorted using a bilateral approach as opposed to going through the WTO. The third section we will talk about how relations with China is hashed out in the US.
The reason why I submitted this article, because there aren't many post trying to explain US-China Trade War from a trade perspective. Here is a post titled "What is the Reasons for America's Trade War with China, and not one person mentioned Article 301 or China's WTO Commitments. You get numerous post saying that Huawei is at heart of the trade war. Its fine, but if you don't know what was inside the USTR Investigative report that lead to the tariffs. its like skipping dinner and only having dessert When the US President, Donald J Trump, says he wants to negotiate a better trade deal with other countries, and has been going on about for the last 35 years, longer than many of you have been alive, why do people think that the key issues with China aren't primarily about trade at the moment.

OVERVIEW OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE ORIENTATION

Before 1940s, the US could be categorized as a free market protectionist economy. For many this may seem like oxymoron, how can an economy be free market and protectionist? In 1913, government spending made up about 7.5% of US GDP, in the UK it was 13%, and for Germany 18% (Public Spending in the 20th Century A Global Perspective: Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi - 2000). UK had virtual zero tariffs, while for manufactured goods in France it was 20%, 13% Germany, 9% Belgium and 4% Netherlands. For raw materials and agricultural products, it was almost zero. In contrast, for the likes of United States, Russia and Japan it was 44%, 84% and 30% respectively. Even though in 1900 United States was an economic powerhouse along with Germany, manufactured exports only made up 30% of exports, and the US government saw tariffs as exclusively a domestic policy matter and didn't see tariffs as something to be negotiated with other nations. The US didn't have the large constituency to push the government for lower tariffs abroad for their exports like in Britain in the 1830-40s (Reluctant Partners: A History of Multilateral Trade Cooperation, 1850-2000).
The Underwood Tariffs Act of 1913 which legislated the income tax, dropped the tariffs to 1850 levels levels.Until 16th amendment was ratified in 1913 making income tax legal, all US federal revenue came from excise and tariffs. In contrast before 1914, about 50% of UK revenue came from income taxes. The reason for US reluctance to introduced income tax was ideological and the United State's relative weak government compared to those in Europe. After the First World War, the US introduced the Emergency Tariff Act of 1921, than the Fordney–McCumber Tariff of 1922 followed by a Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. Contrary to popular opinion, the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 had a small negative impact on the economy, since imports and exports played a small part of the US economy, and the tariffs were lower than the average that existed from 1850-1914.
Immediately after the Second World War, when the US economy was the only industrialized economy left standing, the economic focus was on rehabilitation and monetary stability. There was no grandiose and ideological design. Bretton Woods system linked the US dollar to gold to create monetary stability, and to avoid competitive devaluation and tariffs that plagued the world economy after Britain took itself off the gold in 1931. The US$ was the natural choice, because in 1944 2/3 of the world's gold was in the US. One reason why the Marshall Plan was created was to alleviate the chronic deficits Europeans countries had with the US between 1945-50. It was to rebuild their economies so they could start exports good to the US. Even before it was full implemented in 1959, it was already facing problems, the trade surpluses that the US was running in the 1940s, turned to deficits as European and Japanese economies recovered. By 1959, Federal Reserves foreign liabilities had already exceeded its gold reserves. There were fears of a run on the US gold supply and arbitrage. A secondary policy of the Bretton woods system was curbs on capital outflows to reduce speculation on currency pegs, and this had a negative impact on foreign investment until it was abandoned in 1971. It wasn't until the 1980s, where foreign investment recovered to levels prior to 1914. Factoring out the big spike in global oil prices as a result of the OPEC cartel, it most likely wasn't until the mid-1990s that exports as a % of GDP had reached 1914 levels.
Until the 1980s, the US record regarding free trade and markets was mediocre. The impetus to remove trade barriers in Europe after the Second World War was driven by the Europeans themselves. The EEC already had a custom union in 1968, Canada and the US have yet to even discuss implementing one. Even with Canada it took the US over 50 years to get a Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA was inspired by the success of the EEC. NAFTA was very much an elite driven project. If the Americans put the NAFTA to a referendum like the British did with the EEC in the seventies, it most likely wouldn't pass. People often look at segregation in the US South as a political issue, but it was economic issue as well. How could the US preach free trade, when it didn't have free trade in its own country. Segregation was a internal non-tariff barrier. In the first election after the end of the Cold War in 1992, Ross Perot' based most of independent run for the Presidency on opposition to NAFTA. He won 19% of the vote. Like Ross Perot before him, Donald Trump is not the exception in how America has handled tariffs since the founding of the Republic, but more the norm.
The embrace of free trade by the business and political elite can be attributed to two events. After the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, a strong vested interest in the US in the form of multinationals and Wall Street emerged advocating for removal of tariffs and more importantly the removal of restrictions on free flow of capital, whether direct foreign investment in portfolio investment. However, the political class embrace of free trade and capital only really took off after the collapse of the Soviet Union propelled by Cold War triumphalism.
As mentioned by the article, the US is reverting back to a pre-WTO relations with China. As Robert Lighthizer said in speech in 2000
I guess my prescription, really, is to move back to more of a negotiating kind of a settlement. Return to WTO and what it really was meant to be. Something where you have somebody make a decision but have it not be binding.
The US is using financial and legal instruments developed during the Cold War like its extradition treaties (with Canada and Europe), and Section 301. Here is a very good recent article about enforcement commitment that China will make.‘Painful’ enforcement ahead for China if trade war deal is reached with US insisting on unilateral terms
NOTE: It is very difficult to talk about US-China trade war without a basic knowledge of global economic history since 1914. What a lot of people do is politicize or subordinate the economic history to the political. Some commentators think US power was just handed to them after the Second World War, when the US was the only industrialized economy left standing. The dominant position of the US was temporary and in reality its like having 10 tonnes of Gold sitting in your house, it doesn't automatically translate to influence. The US from 1945-1989 was slowly and gradually build her influence in the non-Communist world. For example, US influence in Canada in the 1960s wasn't as strong as it is now. Only 50% of Canadian exports went to the US in 1960s vs 80% at the present moment.

BASIS OF THE US TRADE DISCUSSION WITH CHINA

According to preliminary agreement between China and the US based on unnamed sources in the Wall Street Journal article US, China close in on Trade Deal. In this article it divides the deal in two sections. The first aspects have largely to do with deficits and is political.
As part of a deal, China is pledging to help level the playing field, including speeding up the timetable for removing foreign-ownership limitations on car ventures and reducing tariffs on imported vehicles to below the current auto tariff of 15%. Beijing would also step up purchases of U.S. goods—a tactic designed to appeal to President Trump, who campaigned on closing the bilateral trade deficit with China. One of the sweeteners would be an $18 billion natural-gas purchase from Cheniere Energy Inc., people familiar with the transaction said.
The second part will involve the following.
  1. Commitment Regarding Industrial Policy
  2. Provisions to protect IP
  3. Mechanism which complaints by US companies can be addressed
  4. Bilateral meetings adjudicate disputes. If talks don't produce agreement than US can raise tariffs unilaterally
This grouping of conditions is similar to the points filled under the 301 investigation which serve the basis for initiating the tariffs. I have been reading some sources that say this discussion on this second group of broader issues could only be finalized later
The official justifications for placing the tariffs on Chinese goods is found under the March 2018 investigation submitted by the office of the President to Congress titled FINDINGS OF THE INVESTIGATION INTO CHINA’S ACTS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES RELATED TO TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, AND INNOVATION UNDER SECTION 301 OF THE TRADE ACT OF 1974. From this investigation the United States Trade Representative (USTR) place US Tariffs on Chinese goods as per Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Here is a press release by the USTR listing the reasons for placing tariffs, and the key section from the press release. Specifically, the Section 301 investigation revealed:
In the bigger context of trade relations between US and China, China is not honoring its WTO commitments, and the USTR issued its yearly report to Congress in early February about the status of China compliance with its WTO commitments. The points that served as a basis for applying Section 301, also deviate from her commitments as Clinton's Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky paving the way for a trade war. Barshefsky argues that China's back sliding was happening as early as 2006-07, and believes the trade war could have been avoided has those commitments been enforced by previous administrations.
I will provide a brief overview of WTO membership and China's process of getting into the WTO.
WTO members can be divided into two groups, first are countries that joined in 1995-97, and were members of GATT, than there are the second group that joined after 1997. China joined in 2001. There is an argument that when China joined in 2001, she faced more stringent conditions than other developing countries that joined before, because the vast majority of developing countries were members of GATT, and were admitted to the WTO based on that previous membership in GATT. Here is Brookings Institute article published in 2001 titled "Issues in China’s WTO Accession"
This question is all the more puzzling because the scope and depth of demands placed on entrants into the formal international trading system have increased substantially since the formal conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations in 1994, which expanded the agenda considerably by covering many services, agriculture, intellectual property, and certain aspects of foreign direct investment. Since 1994, the international community has added agreements covering information technology, basic telecommunications services, and financial services. WTO membership now entails liberalization of a much broader range of domestic economic activity, including areas that traditionally have been regarded by most countries as among the most sensitive, than was required of countries entering the WTO’s predecessor organization the GATT.
The terms of China’s protocol of accession to the World Trade Organization reflect the developments just described and more. China’s market access commitments are much more far-reaching than those that governed the accession of countries only a decade ago. And, as a condition for membership, China was required to make protocol commitments that substantially exceed those made by any other member of the World Trade Organization, including those that have joined since 1995. The broader and deeper commitments China has made inevitably will entail substantial short-term economic costs.
What are the WTO commitments Barshefsky goes on about? When countries join the WTO, particularly those countries that weren't members of GATT and joined after 1997, they have to work toward fulfilling certain commitments. There are 4 key documents when countries make an accession to WTO membership, the working party report, the accession protocol paper, the goods schedule and service schedule.
In the working party report as part of the conclusion which specifies the commitment of each member country what they will do in areas that aren't compliant with WTO regulations on the date they joined. The problem there is no good enforcement mechanism for other members to force China to comply with these commitments. And WTO punishments are weak.
Here is the commitment paragraph for China
"The Working Party took note of the explanations and statements of China concerning its foreign trade regime, as reflected in this Report. The Working Party took note of the commitments given by China in relation to certain specific matters which are reproduced in paragraphs 18-19, 22-23, 35-36, 40, 42, 46-47, 49, 60, 62, 64, 68, 70, 73, 75, 78-79, 83-84, 86, 91-93, 96, 100-103, 107, 111, 115-117, 119-120, 122-123, 126-132, 136, 138, 140, 143, 145, 146, 148, 152, 154, 157, 162, 165, 167-168, 170-174, 177-178, 180, 182, 184-185, 187, 190-197, 199-200, 203-207, 210, 212-213, 215, 217, 222-223, 225, 227-228, 231-235, 238, 240-242, 252, 256, 259, 263, 265, 270, 275, 284, 286, 288, 291, 292, 296, 299, 302, 304-305, 307-310, 312-318, 320, 322, 331-334, 336, 339 and 341 of this Report and noted that these commitments are incorporated in paragraph 1.2 of the Draft Protocol. "
This is a tool by the WTO that list all the WTO commitment of each country in the working paper. In the goods and service schedule they have commitments for particular sectors. Here is the a press release by the WTO in September 2001, after successfully concluding talks for accession, and brief summary of key areas in which China hasn't fulfilled her commitments. Most of the commitments made by China were made to address its legacy as a non-market economy and involvement of state owned enterprises. In my opinion, I think the US government and investors grew increasingly frustrated with China, after 2007 not just because of China's back sliding, but relative to other countries who joined after 1997 like Vietnam, another non-market Leninist dictatorship. When comparing China's commitments to the WTO its best to compare her progress with those that joined after 1997, which were mostly ex-Soviet Republics.
NOTE: The Chinese media have for two decades compared any time the US has talked about China's currency manipulation or any other issue as a pretext for imposing tariffs on China to the Plaza Accords. I am very sure people will raise it here. My criticism of this view is fourfold. First, the US targeted not just Japan, but France, Britain and the UK as well. Secondly, the causes of the Japan lost decade were due largely to internal factors. Thirdly, Japan, UK, Britain and France in the 1980s, the Yuan isn't undervalued today. Lastly, in the USTR investigation, its China's practices that are the concern, not so much the trade deficit.

REASONS FOR TRUMPS UNILATERAL APPROACH

I feel that people shouldn't dismiss Trump's unilateral approach toward China for several reasons.
  1. The multilateral approach won't work in many issues such as the trade deficit, commercial espionage and intellectual property, because US and her allies have different interest with regard to these issues. Germany and Japan and trade surpluses with China, while the US runs a deficit. In order to reach a consensus means the West has to compromise among themselves, and the end result if the type of toothless resolutions you commonly find in ASEAN regarding the SCS. Does America want to "compromise" its interest to appease a politician like Justin Trudeau? Not to mention opposition from domestic interest. TPP was opposed by both Clinton and Trump during the election.
  2. You can't launch a geopolitical front against China using a newly formed trade block like the TPP. Some of the existing TPP members are in economic groups with China, like Malaysia and Australia.
  3. China has joined a multitude of international bodies, and at least in trade, these bodies haven't changed its behavior.
  4. Dealing with China, its a no win situation whether you use a tough multilateral / unilateral approach. If the US endorse a tough unilateral approach gives the impression that the US is acting like the British during the Opium War. If you take a concerted Western approach you are accused of acting like the 8 Powers Alliance in 1900.
  5. Trump was elected to deal with China which he and his supporters believe was responsible for the loss of millions manufacturing jobs when China joined the WTO in 2001. It is estimate the US lost 6 Million jobs, about 1/4 of US manufacturing Jobs. This has been subsequently advanced by some economists. The ball got rolling when Bill Clinton decided to grant China Most Favored Nation status in 1999, just a decade after Tiananmen.
  6. China hasn't dealt with issues like IP protection, market access, subsidies to state own companies and state funded industrial spying.
To his credit, Trump has said his aim was not to overthrow authoritarian governments, and that even applies to the likes of Iran. The Arab spring scared Russia and China, because the US for a brief moment placed the spread of democracy over its security interest.

UNDERSTANDING HOW THE US MAKES DECISIONS REGARDING CHINA

At this moment, China or the trade war isn't an area of great concern for the American public, among international issues it ranks lower than international terrorism, North Korea and Iran's nuclear program.
According to the survey, 39 percent of the country views China’s growing power as a “critical threat” to Americans. That ranked it only eighth among 12 potential threats listed and placed China well behind the perceived threats from international terrorism (66 percent), North Korea’s nuclear program (59 percent) and Iran’s nuclear program (52 percent). It’s also considerably lower than when the same question was asked during the 1990s, when more than half of those polled listed China as a critical threat. That broadly tracks with a recent poll from the Pew Research Center that found concern about U.S.-China economic issues had decreased since 2012.
In looking at how US conducts relations foreign policy with China, we should look at it from the three areas of most concern - economic, national security and ideology. Each sphere has their interest groups, and sometimes groups can occupy two spheres at once. Security experts are concerned with some aspects of China's economic actions like IP theft and industrial policy (China 2025), because they are related to security. In these sphere there are your hawks and dove. And each sphere is dominated by certain interest groups. That is why US policy toward China can often appear contradictory. You have Trump want to reduce the trade deficit, but security experts advocating for restrictions on dual use technology who are buttressed by people who want export restrictions on China, as a way of getting market access.
Right now the economic concerns are most dominant, and the hawks seem to dominate. The economic hawks traditionally have been domestic manufacturing companies and economic nationalist. In reality the hawks aren't dominant, but the groups like US Companies with large investment in China and Wall Street are no longer defending China, and some have turned hawkish against China. These US companies are the main conduit in which China's lobby Congress, since China only spends 50% of what Taiwan spends lobbying Congress.
THE ANGLO SAXON WORLD AND CHINA
I don't think many Chinese even those that speak English, have a good understanding Anglo-Saxon society mindset. Anglo Saxons countries, whether US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland are commerce driven society governed by sanctity of contracts. The English great philosophical contributions to Western philosophy have primarily to do with economics and politics like Adam Smith, John Locke, David Hume and Thomas Hobbes. This contrast with the French and Germans. Politics in the UK and to a lesser extent the US, is centered around economics, while in Mainland Europe its religion. When the Americans revolted against the British Empire in 1776, the initial source of the grievances were taxes.
Outside of East Asia, the rest of the World's relationship with China was largely commercial, and for United States, being an Anglosaxon country, even more so. In Southeast Asia, Chinese aren't known for high culture, but for trade and commerce. Outside Vietnam, most of Chinese loans words in Southeast Asian languages involve either food or money. The influence is akin to Yiddish in English.
Some people point to the Mao and Nixon meeting as great strategic breakthrough and symbol of what great power politics should look like. The reality is that the Mao-Nixon meeting was an anomaly in the long history of relations with China and the West. Much of China-Western relations over the last 500 years was conducted by multitudes of nameless Chinese and Western traders. The period from 1949-1979 was the only period were strategic concerns triumphed trade, because China had little to offer except instability and revolution. Even in this period, China's attempt to spread revolution in Southeast Asia was a threat to Western investments and corporate interest in the region. During the nadir of both the Qing Dynasty and Republican period, China was still engaged in its traditional commercial role. Throughout much of history of their relations with China, the goals of Britain and the United States were primarily economic,
IMAGINE JUST 10% OF CHINA BOUGHT MY PRODUCT
From the beginning, the allure of China to Western businesses and traders has been its sheer size I. One of the points that the USTR mentions is lack of market access for US companies operating in China, while Chinese companies face much less restrictions operating in the US.
This is supported by remarks by Henry Paulson and Charlene Barshefsky. As Paulson remarked
Trade with China has hurt some American workers. And they have expressed their grievances at the ballot box.
So while many attribute this shift to the Trump Administration, I do not. What we are now seeing will likely endure for some time within the American policy establishment. China is viewed—by a growing consensus—not just as a strategic challenge to the United States but as a country whose rise has come at America’s expense. In this environment, it would be helpful if the US-China relationship had more advocates. That it does not reflects another failure:
In large part because China has been slow to open its economy since it joined the WTO, the American business community has turned from advocate to skeptic and even opponent of past US policies toward China. American business doesn’t want a tariff war but it does want a more aggressive approach from our government. How can it be that those who know China best, work there, do business there, make money there, and have advocated for productive relations in the past, are among those now arguing for more confrontation? The answer lies in the story of stalled competition policy, and the slow pace of opening, over nearly two decades. This has discouraged and fragmented the American business community. And it has reinforced the negative attitudinal shift among our political and expert classes. In short, even though many American businesses continue to prosper in China, a growing number of firms have given up hope that the playing field will ever be level. Some have accepted the Faustian bargain of maximizing today’s earnings per share while operating under restrictions that jeopardize their future competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean they’re happy about it. Nor does it mean they aren’t acutely aware of the risks — or thinking harder than ever before about how to diversify their risks away from, and beyond, China.
What is interesting about Paulson's speech is he spend only one sentence about displaced US workers, and a whole paragraph about US business operating in China. While Kissinger writes books about China, how much does he contribute to both Democrats and the Republicans during the election cycle? China is increasingly makING it more difficult for US companies operating and those exporting products to China.

CONTINUED

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The real reasons why Kerala can't even think of seceding from the union

There is so much of chest beating on how Kerala should secede and how it pays on outsize share of tax money that a counter was mandated.
becomes independent.
It needs to pay for things like border security and a full fledged military. That aside it will have to import key raw materials like coal and food materials, and without a central govt subsidising this, best of luck trying to buy it at international commodity market prices.
In addition to this, things that come under the center now, like railways the national power grid, National highway maintenance all will come under the state.
The bankrupt state of Kerala will become an economic basket case.
Just imagine Kerala outside the union and getting hit with a monsoon season like this...ggwp. Without the centre they will literally drown to their deaths.
This whole idea is stupidly retarded.
Furthermore on the whole "le epic HDI" argument,
It has the highest unemployment rate of all major states. Kerala's unemployment rate is 4x the national rate.
It has next to no manufacturing.
It receives in HDI in 15 years that Chennai and Bangalore (not even the entire state) does in less than a year.
It is quite literally bankrupt. Read this. Commercial taxes have actually taken a nose dive after 2012 which indicates declining economic activity.
It has next to no IT services.
Broadly speaking, it's exports total something like $ 2bn annually, and this is mostly Agri commodities, chemicals / rare Earth minerals. Throw in shipbuilding in case it becomes independent and it will still barely make any forex outside of remittances
Why despite having the first IT sez in the country do they export a fraction of what Delhi, Mumbai, Hyd, Bangalore and Chennai export?
Why despite all that literacy have the consistently voted absolutely shit governments that have driven the state finances into the ground?
This Kerala is some superior state myth needs to die, that's the only way it stands a chance of progressing.
The major edge it had was that it's state literacy rate was 30% when the national average was 12%. That allowed it to export labour and basic white collar jobs to the gulf which coincidentally saw the oil boom and needed said labour and white collar jobs.
As a state it has literally nothing going for it as of now. Even look at the much vaunted HDI data and you will see stagnation as other states rapidly catch up.
In 1980, India had an average score of 0.32 on the index (which falls in the low HDI score) with some states like Bihar or UP falling in the sub 0.25 mark which is the lowest possible score. States like Maha and TN also fell in the low HDI region with scores sub 0.300. Kerala was at the 0.55 score which was in the medium HDI category. The differential was almost 43% between the national avg and Kerala. Similar difference between TN / Maha and Kerala.
In 2007-2008, national avg was at 0.513, Kerala at 0.79. Differential being 36%. Maha and TN at 0.57 and the difference here was down to 28%.
In 2015, Kerala was at 0.71, National avg at 0.60. Differential being 16% or 1/3rd what it was in 1980. Maha & TN at 0.66 so the difference here being 8%.
Even the much reviled (by mellus) Gujarat was at 0.52 in 2008 (differential at 35%) vs in 2015 where the Differential is 15%
At this rate, industrialised states like Maha, TN & Guj will have better HDI than Kerala within this decade. Not just that but a whole host of states like Haryana, HP, Karnataka all will either catch up or leave behind Kerala in the HDI stakes within this decade.
Even the "BIMARU" states are slowly catching up.
The Differential between MP and Kerala in 1990 was something like 70%, in 2005 this was at 55% and in 2015 this is at 33%. .
Why is the rest of India (for the most part) progressing while Kerala is stagnant? Because these states have increasing revenue profiles which means more to spend on the social sector while the gulf remmitances haven't really kept up and are predicted to actually drop, and they even actually dropped a full 11% between 2014 and 16 and is only now inching towards 2013-14 levels. With immigration dropping and the gulf economies slowing down this problem is not going to go away anytime soon.
I think I have made my case pretty black and white. Unless Kerala gets it's act together, it's only going to get worse while India overall moves ahead. Whining about "muh beef Aryan Invasion HDI" is not going to be able to sustain it's economy. Lol, this is a state that imports 70% of it's power from outside the state and whose SEB was (till project UDAY) so bankrupt that it couldn't even pay it's employees and they want to secede? Best of luck with that noise. No power, no jobs, increased spending on defense, everything from coal to refined oil will need to be imported, with no matching exports would mean a ruinous trade deficit
submitted by RajaRajaC to IndiaSpeaks [link] [comments]

MEDICALCHAIN REVIEW

A lot of people are talking about this project and as a potential investor i decided to run some checks on it and see if it's worth. Everyone is pumped about it but after a closer look I'm not sure it's worth its price. Therefore let's have a look at the facts :
Medicalchain.com LTD
The company was incorporated on 28/06/2017 under the name MEDICALCHAIN.IO LTD as a private company limited by ordinary shares.
Three directors are appointed: Mr. Mohammed Tayeb, Mr. Abdullah Dafir Albeyatti and Mr. Bara Mustafa.
The initial shareholdings (total of 999) are split in 3 equal parts:
1/3 (333) owned by Mr. Abdullah Dafir Albeyatti
1/3 (333) owned by Mr. Bara Mustafa
1/3 (333) owned by XL CAPITAL VENTURES LTD (owned by Mohammed Tayeb and Omar Tayeb)
At 24/07/2017 the number of shares is increased to 1332, with XL CAPITAL VENTURES LTD holding 666 ordinary shares.
At 13/08/2017 XL CAPITAL VENTURES LTD cease to be a shareholder, with MR Mohammed Tayeb now holding the 666 shares previously held by XL Capital.
At 14/08/2018 MEDICALCHAIN.IO LTD becomes MEDICALCHAIN.COM LTD
Below you can find a bit about every member of the team starting with the top dogs.
MOHAMMED TAYEB :: Director
MR MOHAMMED TAYEB description taken from medicalchain.com.
Mr. Mohammed Tayeb is a Partner at Hearn Capital Limited. Mr. Tayeb co-founded ReadyCache. In 2010, he headed up the development side of morethan.com. During his time there, Mr. Tayeb architected and developed a system to drive down online fraud, saving its over £40 million. Prior to that, he ran a boutique consultancy business in the field of mobile web and application development. Together with his brother and Co-Founder, they own over eight games and utility applications on the Apple and Google Play apps market, with over 10 million downloads. Mr. Tayeb is an internet entrepreneur, investor, and founder of several technology and e-commerce start-ups. As well being a Partner in Hearn Capital, he is also a Non-Executive Director on the board of Salic. Mr. Tayeb specializes in bringing together technological efficiencies to the business world. He has a degree in e-commerce from Brunel University and an Executive MBA from the University of Oxford.
I’ve done an extensive background check and noticed that Mr Mohammed Tayeb has had his fingers in many pies since 2010 being appointed director in and out of more than 15 companies. I am not sure if I would trust him with my money as it looks like he cant commit to something for a longer period of time.
Below you can find part of his work history:
MONSTER TECHNOLOGIES LTD :: Director since 9 January 2017 :: Active - no information found
HEARN CAPITAL LIMITED :: Director since 21 January 2016 :: Active
The company is owned from background by Influential (Holdings) Limited owning more than 50% of shares with a total equity of £1.7 mil.
Basically Influential Holding has lent Hearn Capital 1.2 million to invest in different companies. To me it looks like Mohammed has no skin in this as Influential Holdings Limited is owned by Mr Andrew Richardson and Mr John Edward Simpson.
GOODSHAW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD :: Director since 6 January 2016 :: Company still active Dormant company aka not carrying any business activity
DYNISTICS LIMITED :: Director since 03/03/2015 :: Company still active
Acquisition of Dynistics https://www.dynistics.com/ :: a software company that Hearncapital bought in 2015 which counts colleges, NHS Foundation Trusts and recruitment agencies as clients.
Link for acquisition:https://www.insidermedia.com/insidemidlands/141513-hearn-capital-buys-solihull-software-company
Dynistics is listed as a “small company” and the directors have elected not to include a copy of the profit and loss account within the financial statements. Total equity registered at the end of 2016 : £16.557
SALIC(UK)Limited :: Director since 22/01/2015 :: Company still active
Saudi Agricultural and Livestock investment company: this company belongs to Ministry Of Finance (Saudi Arabia) and financed with over 300 million pounds in capital and 75% or more ownership.
The Travel booking Company LTD :: Director since 19/11/2014 : Dissolved 29/03/2016
XL Capital Investment LTD :: Director 17/03/2014 :: Dissolved : 04/07/2017 - no other information found
Global Labs Technology Limited :: Director since 10/12/2013 –Dissolved : 18/07/2016 - No record, probably westernlabs.com which has no track record nor an online presence
Ready Cache Technologies LTD :: Director since 01/10/2013 :: Dissolved : 04/07/2017 - ReadyCache is a website that accelerates your online content and delivers the best possible speeds to you.
Pepperstone Limited :: Director 13/02/2017 – 22/06/2017 :: Resigned (former 123FX.COM LTD)
Pepperstone acquired 123FX.COM LTD what is now its UK subsidiary from Mohammed Tayeb, who alongside his broker Omar Tayeb established an FCA regulated shell with plans to launch a retail forex brokerage called 123FX.com. The business was never launched, and instead was sold to Pepperstone in late 2015.
Pepperstone has suspended trading for clients in its UK subsidiary as the company is making some changes to its management structure and processes, and bringing on some additional resources in its UK office. To comply with its FCA obligations Pepperstone has had to temporarily suspend trading in the UK until all of the changes are complete and the additional resources are in place.
http://www.checkdirector.co.uk/directomohammed-tayeb/ https://www.leaprate.com/forex/brokers/pepperstone-swaps-phil-horner-mohammed-tayeb-board-uk-fx-relaunch/
Some other companies he had been involved with:
• Director House of Choice Stores LTD :: 2013 – 2016 Disolved
• Director XI Capital Ventures LTD :: 2014-2017 Disolved
• Director UR Trading :: 2002 – 2010 Disolved
• Director LOVEFRAGRANCE INTERNATIONAL LTD :: 2012 – Dissolved 2013
• Director DAR FIRST LIMITED :: 2007 – Dissolved 2011
• Director BLACKSTONE E-COMMERCE LIMITED :: 2011 – Dissolved 2013
All this information can be found at https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/ . You just lookup his name or company names and access the records.
** Mr. Abdullah Dafir Albeyatti :: Director**
Enthusiastic doctor with a wide range of skills and interests. Currently completing my general practice training in Leeds. Previous surgical trainee in the London Deanery. My ambition is to continue improving as a doctor and to develop myself in other fields of medicine and aesthetic training.
He is also the founder of dischargesummary.co.uk. The website is described as a website designed to streamline and lessen the work load placed on junior doctors by standardising the content of discharge summaries produced when a patient is discharged from hospital. This platform has allowed hospital departments to establish quality assurance and accurately produce reliable discharge summaries to effectively commute between hospital and community medicine.
I checked the website and 3 out of 6 features are under development. The site is now redirected to https://ds.medicalchain.com/
Mr. Bara Mustafa :: DirectoCTO
There is no mention of Mr Bara Mustafa on the mediclchain.com which is weird as he is one of the directors and shareholder. It looks like Mr Bara occupation is CTO, which surely would be of interested to the public. Mr Bara is also a OwneDirector of ENETIDEAS LTD since 2010 rendering services as IT Consultant.
https://www.enetideas.com :: the website is not functional, none of the products links are working.
Jay Povey :: Blockchain developer at medicalchain
His introductory linkedin line :
Self taught programmer, programming for 7+ years. BA(Hons) from Buckinghamshire New University. Since January I joined Medicalchain to help create a world class blockchain platform for electronic health records. Previously worked on forex trading algorithm using deep learning / pattern recognition techniques. I have had a keen interest in blockchain technology over the past 2 years. I have been learning the ins and outs of the technology and Im very excited about the future of blockchain. I see great potential for revolutionizing the way businesses are run.
He started coding for Medicalchain in 2017 previously working for 2 years for one of Mohammed companies ReadyCache which was dissolved.
I’m not sure about his experience developing “on forex trading algorithm” as at the previous company ReadyCache they were “building software that is making a difference to webmasters and large companies. We accelerate our customers’ websites, save our customers money and enhance user experience”
Before ReadyCache he worked for a college as an IT technicial and e-learning advisor.
Also I’m not sure what to make out of his facebook profile, he comes across a bit weird. Also on one of his facebook posts he was asking where you can buy bitcoin in may 2017 but on his summary : “I have had a keen interest in blockchain technology over the past 2 years. I have been learning the ins and outs of the technology and Im very excited about the future of blockchain”
https://www.facebook.com/jaypov
Robert Miller :: Director Of Business Development
Looks like his CV is somehow better than the rest, again worked alongside Mohammed at Goodshaw Capital for 1 year. Freelanced a few blockchain projects so I would say he is the one who will drive the project as longs as the money are coming in.
Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/bertcmiller
Natalie Furness :: Communication Director
She has a background in healthcare industry, namely working as a physiotherapist since 2010. She also lectured for Physiotherapy and Sports Exercise Scientist students at Birmingham University and currently working as a project manager for a company offering solutions to the occupational health sector.
The rest of the team occupies either associates or consultants positions for a short period of time 2-3 months.
To sum it up : the initial £5000 pre-ICO investment is way way exaggerated based on the fact that there is nothing to show for at the present moment, just ideas. Mr Mohammed has started 15+ companies and most of them are dissolved which doesn't sound very promising. On top of that he now owns half the company whereas initially the company was split in thirds. Their CTO is not mentioned anywhere on the website but he is a shareholder in the company.
I would not recommend investing in the project right now and I would wait to see if the project would ever gain traction and materialize.
Below I listed some of the videos related to Medicalchain at different conferences / interviews :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4Bc4RiugMg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6WbFMt6Ic4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT-vRXZ2k-o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=devzmfzsh7E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SA91OAaNZUo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_OdMREOpBI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebP5ZzQView
If you want me to run any other checks on other upcoming ICO please let me know.
submitted by cryptoflorin to ICOAnalysis [link] [comments]

I'm stuck about the right place and time to enter trades

Hi Everyone,
I've been in Forex on and off for several years, with numerous demos and two live accounts. I'd like some advise, but first I'll tell you all a bit so you'll know where I am in my Forex journey.
1) After doing some courses to learn, My first live account was with etoro in 2012. Demo was excellent but the real account was a disaster. I think etoro screwed my account because I was literally sitting and staring at my screen when 8 different trades opened for themselves, and in a couple minutes wiped 80% of my money. This literally happened in about 5 minutes and I wasn't even touching my computer to do anything.
I have never in my life opened 8 trades at once, which is why I suspect that they screwed me. As I said this was in 2012.
2) My second live account was with Hotforex in 2013. Demo was going well and I made a live account after.
I was successfully making small trades with small profits mostly using 3sma system combined with trendlines and some support and resistance levels.
Then a family tragedy happened, and I needed money, so I withdrew money from my live account and closed it.
3) From 2014 - 2017/ early 2018 I've mostly been on the move and off the grid (for personal reasons). Now I'm back in the regular world, need something to do and I'm looking at Forex again.
You may ask why I'm considering Forex and not a regular job? Because I have a large number of health problems including chronic pain, which means I don't have enough strength for a regular job. Since my mind is good, I figured Forex could work, since I actually did it for a while in the past. I'm not looking to get rich, if I make $ 300 a month that's good enough for me.
4) For the last 2 months I've been trading a demo with Oanda. It's not going to well. I find that the same strategy I was using back in 2013 is not working anymore. Mostly because the setup for such trades is idealistic and doesn't happen often.
5) I've been experimenting with price movements and I am now at a stage where I can more or less predict which way the market will go. However this leaves me with 2 problems.
A) The price does move where I expect it to, sometimes in 5 minutes, and sometimes in 5 hours. This also depends on the timeframe used.
B) Because of the uncertainty of time in (A), I am having confusion on where and when to actually enter my trades in to the market.
I don't know of the last part makes sense to you all. But if it does, please offer some advise or links that you may have.
Thanks!
submitted by bitnil to Forex [link] [comments]

MEDICALCHAIN REVIEW

A lot of people are talking about this project and as a potential investor i decided to run some checks on it and see if it's worth. Everyone is pumped about it but after a closer look I'm not sure it's worth its price. Therefore let's have a look at the facts :
Medicalchain.com LTD
The company was incorporated on 28/06/2017 under the name MEDICALCHAIN.IO LTD as a private company limited by ordinary shares.
Three directors are appointed: Mr. Mohammed Tayeb, Mr. Abdullah Dafir Albeyatti and Mr. Bara Mustafa.
The initial shareholdings (total of 999) are split in 3 equal parts:
1/3 (333) owned by Mr. Abdullah Dafir Albeyatti
1/3 (333) owned by Mr. Bara Mustafa
1/3 (333) owned by XL CAPITAL VENTURES LTD (owned by Mohammed Tayeb and Omar Tayeb)
At 24/07/2017 the number of shares is increased to 1332, with XL CAPITAL VENTURES LTD holding 666 ordinary shares.
At 13/08/2017 XL CAPITAL VENTURES LTD cease to be a shareholder, with MR Mohammed Tayeb now holding the 666 shares previously held by XL Capital.
At 14/08/2018 MEDICALCHAIN.IO LTD becomes MEDICALCHAIN.COM LTD
Below you can find a bit about every member of the team starting with the top dogs.
MOHAMMED TAYEB :: Director
MR MOHAMMED TAYEB description taken from medicalchain.com.
Mr. Mohammed Tayeb is a Partner at Hearn Capital Limited. Mr. Tayeb co-founded ReadyCache. In 2010, he headed up the development side of morethan.com. During his time there, Mr. Tayeb architected and developed a system to drive down online fraud, saving its over £40 million. Prior to that, he ran a boutique consultancy business in the field of mobile web and application development. Together with his brother and Co-Founder, they own over eight games and utility applications on the Apple and Google Play apps market, with over 10 million downloads. Mr. Tayeb is an internet entrepreneur, investor, and founder of several technology and e-commerce start-ups. As well being a Partner in Hearn Capital, he is also a Non-Executive Director on the board of Salic. Mr. Tayeb specializes in bringing together technological efficiencies to the business world. He has a degree in e-commerce from Brunel University and an Executive MBA from the University of Oxford.
I’ve done an extensive background check and noticed that Mr Mohammed Tayeb has had his fingers in many pies since 2010 being appointed director in and out of more than 15 companies. I am not sure if I would trust him with my money as it looks like he cant commit to something for a longer period of time.
Below you can find part of his work history:
MONSTER TECHNOLOGIES LTD :: Director since 9 January 2017 :: Active - no information found
HEARN CAPITAL LIMITED :: Director since 21 January 2016 :: Active
The company is owned from background by Influential (Holdings) Limited owning more than 50% of shares with a total equity of £1.7 mil.
Basically Influential Holding has lent Hearn Capital 1.2 million to invest in different companies. To me it looks like Mohammed has no skin in this as Influential Holdings Limited is owned by Mr Andrew Richardson and Mr John Edward Simpson.
GOODSHAW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD :: Director since 6 January 2016 :: Company still active Dormant company aka not carrying any business activity
DYNISTICS LIMITED :: Director since 03/03/2015 :: Company still active
Acquisition of Dynistics https://www.dynistics.com/ :: a software company that Hearncapital bought in 2015 which counts colleges, NHS Foundation Trusts and recruitment agencies as clients.
Link for acquisition:https://www.insidermedia.com/insidemidlands/141513-hearn-capital-buys-solihull-software-company
Dynistics is listed as a “small company” and the directors have elected not to include a copy of the profit and loss account within the financial statements. Total equity registered at the end of 2016 : £16.557
SALIC(UK)Limited :: Director since 22/01/2015 :: Company still active
Saudi Agricultural and Livestock investment company: this company belongs to Ministry Of Finance (Saudi Arabia) and financed with over 300 million pounds in capital and 75% or more ownership.
The Travel booking Company LTD :: Director since 19/11/2014 : Dissolved 29/03/2016
XL Capital Investment LTD :: Director 17/03/2014 :: Dissolved : 04/07/2017 - no other information found
Global Labs Technology Limited :: Director since 10/12/2013 –Dissolved : 18/07/2016 - No record, probably westernlabs.com which has no track record nor an online presence
Ready Cache Technologies LTD :: Director since 01/10/2013 :: Dissolved : 04/07/2017 - ReadyCache is a website that accelerates your online content and delivers the best possible speeds to you.
Pepperstone Limited :: Director 13/02/2017 – 22/06/2017 :: Resigned (former 123FX.COM LTD)
Pepperstone acquired 123FX.COM LTD what is now its UK subsidiary from Mohammed Tayeb, who alongside his broker Omar Tayeb established an FCA regulated shell with plans to launch a retail forex brokerage called 123FX.com. The business was never launched, and instead was sold to Pepperstone in late 2015.
Pepperstone has suspended trading for clients in its UK subsidiary as the company is making some changes to its management structure and processes, and bringing on some additional resources in its UK office. To comply with its FCA obligations Pepperstone has had to temporarily suspend trading in the UK until all of the changes are complete and the additional resources are in place.
http://www.checkdirector.co.uk/directomohammed-tayeb/ https://www.leaprate.com/forex/brokers/pepperstone-swaps-phil-horner-mohammed-tayeb-board-uk-fx-relaunch/
Some other companies he had been involved with:
• Director House of Choice Stores LTD :: 2013 – 2016 Disolved
• Director XI Capital Ventures LTD :: 2014-2017 Disolved
• Director UR Trading :: 2002 – 2010 Disolved
• Director LOVEFRAGRANCE INTERNATIONAL LTD :: 2012 – Dissolved 2013
• Director DAR FIRST LIMITED :: 2007 – Dissolved 2011
• Director BLACKSTONE E-COMMERCE LIMITED :: 2011 – Dissolved 2013
All this information can be found at https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/ . You just lookup his name or company names and access the records.
** Mr. Abdullah Dafir Albeyatti :: Director**
Enthusiastic doctor with a wide range of skills and interests. Currently completing my general practice training in Leeds. Previous surgical trainee in the London Deanery. My ambition is to continue improving as a doctor and to develop myself in other fields of medicine and aesthetic training.
He is also the founder of dischargesummary.co.uk. The website is described as a website designed to streamline and lessen the work load placed on junior doctors by standardising the content of discharge summaries produced when a patient is discharged from hospital. This platform has allowed hospital departments to establish quality assurance and accurately produce reliable discharge summaries to effectively commute between hospital and community medicine.
I checked the website and 3 out of 6 features are under development. The site is now redirected to https://ds.medicalchain.com/
Mr. Bara Mustafa :: DirectoCTO
There is no mention of Mr Bara Mustafa on the mediclchain.com which is weird as he is one of the directors and shareholder. It looks like Mr Bara occupation is CTO, which surely would be of interested to the public. Mr Bara is also a OwneDirector of ENETIDEAS LTD since 2010 rendering services as IT Consultant.
https://www.enetideas.com :: the website is not functional, none of the products links are working.
Jay Povey :: Blockchain developer at medicalchain
His introductory linkedin line :
Self taught programmer, programming for 7+ years. BA(Hons) from Buckinghamshire New University. Since January I joined Medicalchain to help create a world class blockchain platform for electronic health records. Previously worked on forex trading algorithm using deep learning / pattern recognition techniques. I have had a keen interest in blockchain technology over the past 2 years. I have been learning the ins and outs of the technology and Im very excited about the future of blockchain. I see great potential for revolutionizing the way businesses are run.
He started coding for Medicalchain in 2017 previously working for 2 years for one of Mohammed companies ReadyCache which was dissolved.
I’m not sure about his experience developing “on forex trading algorithm” as at the previous company ReadyCache they were “building software that is making a difference to webmasters and large companies. We accelerate our customers’ websites, save our customers money and enhance user experience”
Before ReadyCache he worked for a college as an IT technicial and e-learning advisor.
Also I’m not sure what to make out of his facebook profile, he comes across a bit weird. Also on one of his facebook posts he was asking where you can buy bitcoin in may 2017 but on his summary : “I have had a keen interest in blockchain technology over the past 2 years. I have been learning the ins and outs of the technology and Im very excited about the future of blockchain”
https://www.facebook.com/jaypov
Robert Miller :: Director Of Business Development
Looks like his CV is somehow better than the rest, again worked alongside Mohammed at Goodshaw Capital for 1 year. Freelanced a few blockchain projects so I would say he is the one who will drive the project as longs as the money are coming in.
Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/bertcmiller
Natalie Furness :: Communication Director
She has a background in healthcare industry, namely working as a physiotherapist since 2010. She also lectured for Physiotherapy and Sports Exercise Scientist students at Birmingham University and currently working as a project manager for a company offering solutions to the occupational health sector.
The rest of the team occupies either associates or consultants positions for a short period of time 2-3 months.
To sum it up : the initial £5000 pre-ICO investment is way way exaggerated based on the fact that there is nothing to show for at the present moment, just ideas. Mr Mohammed has started 15+ companies and most of them are dissolved which doesn't sound very promising. On top of that he now owns half the company whereas initially the company was split in thirds. Their CTO is not mentioned anywhere on the website but he is a shareholder in the company.
I would not recommend investing in the project right now and I would wait to see if the project would ever gain traction and materialize.
Below I listed some of the videos related to Medicalchain at different conferences / interviews :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4Bc4RiugMg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6WbFMt6Ic4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT-vRXZ2k-o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=devzmfzsh7E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SA91OAaNZUo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_OdMREOpBI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebP5ZzQView
If you want me to run any other checks on other upcoming ICO please let me know.
submitted by cryptoflorin to Crypto_ICO_Investing [link] [comments]

GPU mining - Current day explanation breakdown as to why it's not profitable any longer for PowerPayers.

As some of you in the community know that I've been around for a little while now, GPU mining was my thing. I'm going to give you fellow miners a break down as to what my thoughts are and reasonings for not mining any longer.
For those of you whom haven't read my previous posts, I started out in 2012 with two 7950's. I mined and made some decent profits, not great due to messing up some trades but still came out ahead and had paid off all my geapower costs and a little extra.
I decided to expand and go big, I expanded to 12 cards and did pretty decent as well. broke even and then decided to expand even further to 53 cards, however for stability reasons I downsized to 46 280x's and removed any other models.
I unfortunately did not come close to breaking even on that last venture due to ASICS hitting the market at the same time I received my shipment of GPU's that was backordered for 4 months.
I've mined with the new system since April and have yet to come close to any ROI. I've been breaking even at best on power costs when averaging what i've mined to the costs of power I've spent.
Here's some reasons why I've failed and or what was going on at the times:
-asics hit the market at the same time and caused panic for GPU miners that were scrypt based.
As of today and for the past month I've found that it's really not worth the time and effort to mine. Between the time I've spent researching what new coins to mine, renting my rigs etc. all the time that goes into what is now this very competitive industry I've found it isnt worth it. For the people whom get free power GPU mining is still barely worth the time. With 46 cards I would be able to make around $20 a day if I had free power and honestly my time is worth a lot more to me than $20 a day, seeing as to make that $20 I have to really put the time in to ensure I'm making good trades/mining the best coins for the day.
Also the price of hardware is plummeting at accelerating rates. My rigs consisted of 280x's and the pricier models might I add, selling them used for the past two weeks I've noticed the majority of buyers are bottom feeders(People that are looking for a dirt cheap price on hardware and want to basically steal them off your hands). Less than 50% of the retail price is what they're asking for. And for myself, 50% of todays retail price is a slap in the face, seeing as my cards are less than 6 months old, have 2 year warranties and have been babied (not OC'd), when I removed them from the mining room, the majority of them didn't even have a spec of dust on them due to the air flow setup I had and as close to a dust free environment as I could get with industrial surge protection ensuring all hardware was safe.
The general public doesn't think to look on craigslist, or the other free to post local services where you'll be likely to post your hardware. Only generally the bottom feeders are monitoring those sites and they will have no shame in offering you prices that are next to ridiculous, even when you state 'FIRM price' in your listing.
Ebay gives you more exposure however ebay takes a cut on the sales. So you want $180 for your 280x? well now you have to put it up on ebay for $206~ due to the fee's from ebay/paypal, and now that $206 card costs the buyer an additional $15-30 in shipping. At the end of the day with ebay you're likely to be selling your hardware for a huge loss due to their fee's.
I've yet to find a good site where you can post your hardware and reach the mass public to ensure a lot of views on your ads while being able to sell your hardware at a decent price. I've found Reddit hardware page also is hard to get decent buyers, a lot of bottom feeders will approach you much like on craigslist.
As a consumer myself, I find it very odd that there's so many bottom-feeder type people out there on these local trading sites. If I was looking for a GPU or other hardware upgrades on the local trading sites, I'd be pretty fine and excited with getting a piece of hardware that is listed with at least a $100-150 savings(lets say retail is 340 after tax and there's an ad for an item at $200) but these bottom-feeders aren't, they want this stuff for far less to feel that they've gotten a 'deal'.
All in all what I recommend for GPU miners and what I see the future of GPU mining coming to(there's a few scenarios):
recommendations:
-If you don't pay for power, consider still selling your hardware, look at my setup, 46 cards making $20 a day on average. The time it would take to ROI on my hardware is close to 5+years, and that's with free power! What are the chances that I'll ROI if I kept mining? next to none. Most of you out there have 1-6 cards, you're making peanuts most likely. Get rid of the hardware, re-invest the money into BTC and buy your ALT coins that you believed in mining if you were a long term coin holder. Or just take the cash and spend it on other things in life! The price of your hardware will continue to decline and you're likely not going to make more over time with the mining.
Some arguments to consider:
"Price of BTC may rise to $10000 one day, so mining with gpu's now if you have free power is still worth it!" some people state. Well I can tell you that I've seen it happen multiple times where the price of BTC has risen and the price of ALT's has corrected itself. There have been far and few moments in crypto history where ALT coins have gone UP with BTC especially recently. Chances of your random coin climbing the fiat ladder as BTC rises is very slim. Out of the hundreds of coins out there now, what coin are you going to bet on to rise with BTC while the rest of them stay at their current day fiat prices? For example, a coin lets say you hold now is worth $0.10 cents. When BTC hits $1000, it corrects and is still worth $0.10 cents equivalent in fiat. Not many coins are going to RISE in value alongside BTC.(That's if BTC rises, no one can for sure say if it even will!) Chances of you choosing the few coins that do rise with BTC will be slim.
All in all if you have the spare money to mine, sure do it, it's fun to contribute to the community, but don't expect to make a buck unless you've gone industrial size like myself, and even then you're making such little profit if you have free power.(who's going to get free power at $18 a day running costs? not many!)
What the GPU scene needs is new GPU hardware that can mine way better than anything out today for GPU's(likely not to happen for cheap) and or we need GPU coins to hold value somehow, IE a good marketing campaign where the GPU coin(s) can clearly gain back investors.
I don't see GPU mining being profitable again really for quite some time if ever and thus I'm getting out of it for now. I've been burnt bad enough with the most recent expansion that I wont be able to get into mining again for quite some time. Time will tell.
For now I recommend people sell hardware and buy crypto with the money or instead of buying hardware if you're thinking of getting into mining, just buy crypto outright. Mining right now is a loss for the majority of miners out there. Hope this post has helped shed some light to those that are looking to get into mining or who are in mining and unsure of what's going on and what to do. (and again, take my feedback with a grain of salt, you don't know who you can trust when it comes to you and your investments :P)
Also as a side note my power costs are around .12 to .14 per KWh. Which is supposedly quite cheap compared to many places in the world.
submitted by phi0x to gpumining [link] [comments]

Happy new year, forex folks! Start your 2012 with a bang by taking a look at my quick and wacky predictions for the year. Which ones do you think are likely to come true? Central banks to loosen up a little more? As several economic problems linger and with the threat of another recession looming, major central banks are likely to stick to their loose monetary policies in order to prop up ... Forex Kong December 23, 2012 Got something to say? As I’d mentioned previously – Sunday’s are sacred . With no lights flashing on my screen, no announcements scheduled, no scandals hitting the wires, no “fed speak” etc – Sundays are truly a blessing, for the hard-working and ever diligent currency trader. Foreign exchange (forex) trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The risk grows The risk grows as the leverage is higher. necessarily represent the opinions of any of Forex Crunch's authorized authors. Forex Crunch has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: Omissions and errors may occur. Any news, analysis, opinion, price quote or any other information contained on Forex Crunch and permitted Tis the season for predictions. And when we at LeapRate look into our crystal ball for 2012, we basically see a continuation of three key trends which began to take hold of the Forex industry in 2011. The one thing which is hard, if impossible, to predict is industry volumes. Forex and CFD trading volumes co-relate strongly with volatility, and volatility is impossible to foresee. Looking ... Predictions for 2012: Fear, Greed and Volatility by DOW JONES. Mr.Dev January 4, 2012, 6:27 am April 21, 2017 0. 1070. Facebook; Twitter; Google+; LinkedIn; StumbleUpon; Pinterest; Print; The 2012 year opens with perhaps more uncertainty than any previous year in recent memory. The economies around the world are weak at best, Iran is test firing missiles in the Gulf and it’s an election year ... blog on astrology,tarot predictions of stock markets markets,gold,futures,ETF,silver,forex,euro,elections,horoscope,zodiac,,profit from trading

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